U.S. State Employment Monitor

TD Economics

New England

  • The labor market continued to disappoint in October, shedding 14.2k jobs (-0.2% m/m) - the second consecutive month of job losses - building on the cooling trend since mid-year.
  • Conn. (-0.4% m/m) continued to shed jobs for the fourth consecutive month, while Vt. (-0.7% m/m) and Maine (-0.6% m/m) shed jobs for the third consecutive month. Moderate payroll gains were recorded in R.I. and N.H.
  • Payrolls declined in educ. services (-6.7k), gov’t (-5.7k) and retail (-2.7k). Hiring was soft elsewhere, with only modest gains in health and prof. services.
  • The jobless rate remained unchanged in Vt. but fell in all other jurisdictions, notably in Mass. and Conn. (-0.3pp apiece) – in part due to a pullback in the labor force.

Upper South Atlantic

  • The Upper South Atlantic added 9.5k jobs in October (+0.1% m/m), following the prior month’s upwardly revised gain of 32.9k jobs.
  • Most of the gain came out of N.C. (5.7k) and Va. (4.9k), with payrolls up by 0.1% on the month. Md. also added 700 jobs, while losses in D.C. (-1k), Del (-0.4k) and W.Va. (-0.4k) subtracted from the overall tally.
  • Hiring was led by admin. (+9.0k), prof. & tech. services (+6.9k), and hospitality (+6.1k). The only notable decline was apparent in government (-5.6k) and retail (-3.7k).
  • The jobless rate ticked up 0.2 pp in W.Va (6.0%), N.C. (4.2%) and Va. (4.2%) largely a result of a rising labor force and was unchanged in Md. (4.2%), Del. (4.3%), and D.C (6.1%).

Middle Atlantic

  • The Mid-Atlantic labor market shed 13.6k jobs (-0.1% m/m) in October. Fortunately, the previous month’s job losses (-4k prev.) were revised up to gains of 8.6k.
  • Payrolls fell across the region, with N.Y. (-0.1% m/m) and N.J. (-0.1% m/m) shedding around 6k jobs apiece and accounting for the bulk of the decline. Payrolls were marginally lower in Pa. (-1.8k; -0.0%m/m).
  • Payrolls fell in educ. services (-13.8k), finance (-4.7k) and gov’t (-4.7k). Notable job gains in admin. and support services (+7.2k) and health (+5.7k) did little to turn the tide.
  • The jobless rate continued to tick higher in N.Y. (+0.2pp) but fell in N.J. (-0.1pp) – bringing the rate to 5.2% for both. The unemployment rate rose 0.1pp in Pa. to 5.8%.

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